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We’re just as shocked as you – it’s already June and time is flying by. While most people are thinking about summer vacations and grilling out, the professionals at Clyde Nettles Roofing are already researching the predictions for the 2024 hurricane season.
The most important thing you can do in any emergency situation is to be prepared, so let’s dive into both the hurricane predictions and tips to keep you and your family safe during tropical storms this season.
The Atlantic basin is in for some above-normal hurricane activity this year due to warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, reduced Atlantic trade winds and the development of La Nina conditions forming in the Pacific.
As the strong El Nino weather pattern comes to an end, NOAA experts are predicting a quick shift to La Nina conditions, reducing wind shear in the tropics. Strong wind shears (which we won’t have) can help disrupt storms and also minimize ocean cooling. AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva explains it best: “It can be helpful to visualize a stack of pancakes,” DaSilva explained. When there is a high amount of wind shear, the top of a tropical system can be pushed and tilted away from its base, causing it to become lopsided. If a mature hurricane is in place, it may weaken but will not necessarily dissipate. “A tall, neat stack is what a tropical system wants to be, but wind shear can cause some pancakes to be displaced and the stack could fall over,” said DaSilva.
Tropical storms can also get even more support through elevated levels of oceanic heat in the Atlantic & Caribbean Sea we are experiencing in 2024.
As if this wasn’t enough, there is also a strong potential for more west African monsoons, producing easterly waves that can help develop longer-lived Atlantic storms.
Now that we’ve explained the “why,” let’s get down to the nitty-gritty. NOAA is anticipating 17-25 named storms, and 8-13 of these could become hurricanes with winds reaching a minimum of 74 mph. Out of those 8-13, approximately 4-7 could become major storms with winds reaching at least 115 mph. This is one of the highest numbers of hurricanes predicted by NOAA in it’s pre-season forecast.
Colorado State University does provide some percentages/odds: According to CSU, the odds of a major hurricane making landfall along the US Coastline is at 62%, with the odds of a direct strike in the Caribbean at a high 66%. Overall, chances across all coastal US states sit at about 10-20% higher than the average, meaning we could very well surpass the activity we saw in 2023.
DeSilva (from AccuWeather) says the areas at the highest elevated risk of a direct strike include: Texas coast, Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas. He also adds that all residents near coastal locations need to remain prepared and vigilant.
You can get more hurricane preparedness information here. If you have a home with an older roof, or if it’s been several years since you’ve had your roof looked at, contact Clyde Nettles Roofing today for a free, no-obligation inspection. Locally owned & operated for over 74 years, we’re licensed in SC, NC & GA for both residential homes and commercial buildings. We’ll send experienced professionals to physically walk the roof and give you a report on the condition and age of your current roofing system.
If storms do hit, we are the top recommended roofer in the Carolina’s with all major insurance carriers. If you have any roofing questions, reach out to us today. Whatever happens this hurricane season, we hope everyone stays safe!
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